In a few weeks’ time, we will likely see the dissolution of the legislative assemblies for the six states of Terengganu, Kelantan, Kedah, Pulau Pinang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan. What was once a strategic measure on the part of the competing political parties to conserve their forces for the 15th General Elections in November 2022, has become a major headache especially for the ruling Unity Government. The nascent coalition of necessity under PM Anwar Ibrahim is still embroiled in internal frictions, especially between DAP and UMNO, while also having to contend with an aggressive and bullish Perikatan Nasional.
There are many moving parts, of course, to these upcoming state elections, but from most people I talk to, one of the greatest preoccupations of observers for this coming elections is: how bad will UMNO get whacked? The 15th General Elections was a chastening experience for the Grand Old Party: not only did UMNO and its Barisan Nasional partners fare poorly in the urban seats all across the country, which have increasingly become strongholds for the likes of DAP and PKR, but PAS and Bersatu have routed UMNO in its rural heartlands. UMNO was a distinct third choice for Malays across the peninsula.
Amazingly, not only did the party leadership escape unscathed from accountability over this atrocious performance, it achieved a major coup, becoming an integral part of the governing coalition under Anwar Ibrahim, and succeeding in purging or silencing many of its critics.
The problem for UMNO, of course, is that nothing has changed since then. Its performance in government is nothing to shout home about, and there has been precious little red meat that its representatives in Government have been able to bring back to its remaining supporters. Even being told to vote for DAP candidates has become a touchy and controversial subject in the party.
Quo vadis, UMNO?
My own take is that many of its remaining state seats will go the way of how it was in the 15th general elections: in the direction of PAS and Bersatu. The Malay rejection for UMNO will likely be encompassing and total. Will non-Malay votes from local DAP and PKR supporters help to shore up UMNO’s position? Perhaps. But I suspect that once the dust has settled, the ongoing momentum of Malays walking away from UMNO will become even more pronounced and undeniable. UMNO might survive this coming PRN, perhaps with DAP and PKR votes in its corner, but it might win the battle only to lose the war for its long-term relevance and survival.
UMNO, of course, has shown great resilience in the past. It would be foolish to fully count out UMNO. But under the current leadership, the party appears adrift, unclear of its purpose and existence, and unable to forge a new narrative for itself in a new political environment.
The ideal post-PRN outcome for UMNO, existentially-speaking, is that another seismic defeat will force its leadership to finally demonstrate accountability. After the fiasco of the recent party elections, there is only a small window of opportunity for UMNO to rediscover its mojo, and for it to articulate a clear vision for the future of the party to its members and supporters.
It is not enough to claim that the party needs to play third fiddle for the sake of “unity”. Everyone knows that there is a ticking clock to this coalition – will UMNO honestly accept being subordinate to PKR and DAP over the long term? Will the Sarawakians tolerate being in permanent coalition with DAP, its only real competition in its own backyard? How will the Sabahan political winds blow come the next general elections?
More importantly, I believe that the long term stability of Malaysia rests on it being governed by a government that approximates the formula that was forged by Tun Razak under the Barisan Nasional: Malay-led, centrist, competent, trusted, inclusive, pragmatic. The nation cannot long survive a tussle in which maximalist politics are pursued to the detriment of peace and public order. What role UMNO will play in that future, or if it will even survive these next few years, will be a pivotal question in determining whether Malaysia as a nation makes it safely through these next few years of political uncertainty.