Month: August 2023

In many ways, the results of the recent state elections were unsurprising. Both Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan National kept their 3 states apiece. UMNO continued to lose support to PAS and Bersatu, with the arc of its downward trajectory now clearly bending towards utter electoral destruction. Non-Malay votes remained firmly with Pakatan Harapan, especially DAP. Gerakan, meanwhile, continues its long march towards irrelevance. MCA and MIC, instead, heave a sigh of vindicated relief, even as they know that based on current trends, electoral doom also awaits them at the next General Elections. And finally, MUDA discovers the brutal remorselessness of first-past-the-post politics.

It is desperately early to make any firm conclusions of out of the tea leaves of 12th August 2023, but I thought it might be interesting and entertaining to make a few educated guesses and speculative shots-in-the-dark:

1. UMNO was really the biggest loser out of these elections, and the calls for Zahid Hamidi to step down as president are already mounting. Given, however, that the party elections just concluded recently with a sham resolution protecting Zahid and Mohamad Hasan in their perches atop the party, and that it is his presidency of UMNO that is keeping Zahid Hamidi in government and out of jail, I would give it only a 30% chance that the UMNO president would heed the calls for him to step down. In the unlikely event that this happens, the deciding factor would be Anwar Ibrahim finally coming to the realisation that propping up UMNO is not the most reliable route towards salvaging Malay support for his government.
2. In the same vein as the above, I would give it a 70% chance that this Madani government will make a policy pivot towards accommodating conservative Malay sentiments. Expect to see more instances of policy moves like banning rainbow-coloured Swiss watches to proliferate, as Anwar steps up the game of gestural politics to recover at least some ground amongst Malay voters. More quotas for Bumiputera students, more support for Bumiputera entrepreneurs – this will likely be the tenor of many new policies going forward.
3. Like that famous Bill Clinton campaign slogan from the early 1990s, “it’s the economy, stupid!” ought to the mantra for this government going forward. Much of the shift of Malay votes to PN is fuelled not only by ideological concerns, but also bread-and-butter issues. Yes, headline inflation has been falling in recent months, but not fast enough for voters to feel the change. The seven targets outlined in the Economic Madani document are broadly correct: now Anwar’s government needs to deliver. This will still be the most expeditious and concrete way for the Anwar administration to win back Malay support.
4. Non-Malays and urban liberals will be in for a very rough and disappointing few years ahead. With non-Malay support for the DAP already almost maxed out, and urban liberals having nowhere else to go at the ballot box, the next few years will likely be a series of Nixon-going-to-China moments for Anwar, and Pakatan Harapan’s core base of voters will undoubtedly end up being disappointed and angry, and feel like they are being taken for granted. Anwar’s major political task will be to keep them onside even as he attempts to bridge the gap with the conservative Malay electorate.
5. MUDA may not realise it, but they are already in menghitung hari mode. There is not much room for another urban liberal party on the national stage, when that space is already having to accommodate both PKR and DAP. PKR ‘s Adam Adli knows that Syed Saddiq is a potent competitor, and PKR’s AMK has been at the forefront of the very public disrespect being shown by PH to MUDA. I expect Syed Saddiq to eventually join the DAP and become their premier Malay personality in the decades to come.
6. PAS was the big winner here, as they were in November 2022. They will certainly ride the Perikatan Nasional magic carpet for as long as they can. The rural Malay heartlands in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah are probably theirs to keep for at least a generation.

My final observation here will be a bit more long-range, and probably more contentious. I think that the past few election cycles have shown is that the only way to form a stable and effective government at the Federal level is by recreating the Barisal Nasional formula: a multi-racial electoral coalition led by a centre-right Malay leadership. That final point is important: Malaysian demographics are leaning in the direction of ever-greater political weight for the Malay community. And this community is changing: not necessarily more religious or devout in their daily practice, but certainly more cognisant and mindful of Islam as a potent part of their political identity. And many of them are still stuck in low-wage jobs – successfully winning their votes will not only require an articulation of necessary social welfare support, but more importantly, sketching a plan for providing better skills and better-paying jobs.

In the long run, I believe that the political leadership of Malaysia will fall to whoever can replicate a dominant centre-right positioning for political primacy, much like the AKP in Türkiye, or the LDP in Japan. In pole position, the main contenders in today’s arena would be PAS, Bersatu and UMNO. Each have their own unique challenges in vying for political leadership.

Can PAS shed its image as a stuck-in-the-mud lebai party, and articulate a clear economic vision for Malaysia?

Can Bersatu quickly build up its ranks and its machinery, and shed its current image as a ragtag collection of UMNO has-beens?

Or can UMNO finally find the courage to jettison Zahid Hamidi, loosen the Bossku chokehold on the party’s rank and file, and present itself as a truly reformed and contrite party?

PKR and the DAP will also fancy their own chances of becoming the top dog in Malaysian politics.

For PKR, the question of what happens after Anwar is paramount. Can the next generation of PKR leaders break out of their urban left-of-centre cul-de-sac to win broader appeal amongst the broader Malay electorate?

For the DAP, their overtures towards the Malay ground has been impressive, but not fast enough. Will it be consigned to becoming the eternal, albeit essential, bridesmaid of 21st-century Malaysian politics?

We are now going though a period of upheaval that is unprecedented in Malaysian politics, triggered by the collapse in Malay political trust in UMNO and the non-Malay exodus to the DAP. Whoever can reassemble the broken pieces of Najib’s Barisan Nasional could end up ruling Malaysian politics for decades to come.